Leningradets vs Torpedo Moskva

Leningradets

Preview

15:00

Torpedo Moskva

10/10/2026

First League · Round 13Petrovsky Stadium

60%

Torpedo Moskva

model favours

15%25%60%

Leningradets score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1

likely score

62%

under 2.5 goals

38%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leningradets15%

×Draw25%

Torpedo Moskva60%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeningradetsExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.64

1.59

Leningradets

0.64

Torpedo Moskva

1.59

Torpedo Moskva creates 148% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 40 away

0.33

creates per match

1.18

2.00

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Leningradets

0.33

Torpedo Moskva

1.18

allows per match

Leningradets

2.00

Torpedo Moskva

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–117%

0–214%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw

40%

Leningradets or Torpedo Moskva

75%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

85%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+

4%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals

47%

Leningradets 2+ goals

14%

Leningradets 3+ goals

3%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

80%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

47%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)

20%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 0.33 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.64

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.18 + Leningradets defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Leningradets scores more

15%

level

25%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

60%

Torpedo Moskva at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row
Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
Both teams score in only 29% of Leningradets’s matches
Leningradets sit 18, Torpedo Moskva 7 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Leningradets

LLLDW

Moskva

WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff