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Leningradets vs Spartak Kostroma — First League 2024

Leningradets
Leningradets
Preview
15:00
Spartak Kostroma
Spartak Kostroma
5/8/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Petrovsky Stadium
Big match
52%
Spartak Kostroma
model favours
23%24%52%

Leningradets score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Leningradets23%
×Draw24%
Spartak Kostroma52%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
1.04
Spartak Kostroma
1.68

Spartak Kostroma creates 62% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Leningradets
0.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.53

allows per match

Leningradets
1.83
Spartak Kostroma
1.41

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Spartak Kostroma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
48%
Leningradets or Spartak Kostroma
76%
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
77%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
9%
Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
65%
Leningradets 2+ goals
28%
Leningradets 3+ goals
9%
Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals
81%
Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals
50%
Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
31%
Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 0.67 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.04

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Leningradets defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Leningradets scores more
23%
level
24%
Spartak Kostroma scores more
52%

Spartak Kostroma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leningradets have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Leningradets’s matches
  • Leningradets sit 18, Spartak Kostroma 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Leningradets
LLLDW
Kostroma
WLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leningradets host Spartak Kostroma

May 8, 2027: Leningradets take on Spartak Kostroma in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Leningradets host Spartak Kostroma at Petrovsky Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.