Leningradets vs Rotor Volgograd

Leningradets

Preview

15:00

Rotor Volgograd

5/29/2027

First League · Round 34Petrovsky Stadium

56%

Rotor Volgograd

model favours

18%25%56%

Leningradets score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1

likely score

59%

under 2.5 goals

43%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Leningradets18%

×Draw25%

Rotor Volgograd56%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeningradetsExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.57

Leningradets

0.77

Rotor Volgograd

1.57

Rotor Volgograd creates 104% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 40 away

0.60

creates per match

1.15

2.00

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Leningradets

0.60

Rotor Volgograd

1.15

allows per match

Leningradets

2.00

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw

44%

Leningradets or Rotor Volgograd

75%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

82%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+

5%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals

54%

Leningradets 2+ goals

18%

Leningradets 3+ goals

4%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

79%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

46%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)

25%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 0.60 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.77

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.15 + Leningradets defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Leningradets scores more

18%

level

25%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

56%

Rotor Volgograd at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 29% of Leningradets’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Leningradets

LLLDW

Volgograd

LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff