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Leningradets vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Leningradets
Leningradets
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
3/8/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Spring Season Gold - 2Petrovsky Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Leningradets41%
×Draw27%
Rodina Moskva II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
1.33
Rodina Moskva II
1.15

Leningradets creates 16% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

creates per match

Leningradets
1.56
Rodina Moskva II
1.11

allows per match

Leningradets
1.19
Rodina Moskva II
1.11

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
68%
Leningradets or Rodina Moskva II
73%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
59%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
19%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
74%
Leningradets 2+ goals
38%
Leningradets 3+ goals
15%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
68%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
32%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
56%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 1.56 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Leningradets defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leningradets scores more
41%
level
27%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
32%

Leningradets at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leningradets vs Rodina Moskva II

Leningradets and Rodina Moskva II drew 0-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Petrovsky Stadium in Saint Petersburg.