Leningradets 0–2 FK Sokol Saratov: Result & Stats

Leningradets

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FK Sokol Saratov

4/20/2024

First League · Round 28Roshchino Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leningradets35%

×Draw29%

FK Sokol Saratov36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeningradetsExpected goals in this matchFK Sokol Saratov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.14

Leningradets

1.13

FK Sokol Saratov

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

0.71

creates per match

0.75

1.53

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Leningradets

0.71

FK Sokol Saratov

0.75

allows per match

Leningradets

1.53

FK Sokol Saratov

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw

64%

Leningradets or FK Sokol Saratov

71%

Draw or FK Sokol Saratov

65%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+

14%

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals

68%

Leningradets 2+ goals

31%

Leningradets 3+ goals

11%

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

68%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

32%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)

50%

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 0.71 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.13

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.75 + Leningradets defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Leningradets scores more

35%

level

29%

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

36%

FK Sokol Saratov at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff