Leningradets 1–2 Dinamo Makhachkala: Result & Stats

Leningradets

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Makhachkala

9/10/2023

First League · Round 9Stadion Petrovskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leningradets25%

×Draw32%

Dinamo Makhachkala43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeningradetsExpected goals in this matchDinamo Makhachkala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

1.10

Leningradets

0.76

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.10

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

0.71

creates per match

0.68

1.53

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Leningradets

0.71

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.68

allows per match

Leningradets

1.53

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw

57%

Leningradets or Dinamo Makhachkala

68%

Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala

75%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+

8%

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals

53%

Leningradets 2+ goals

18%

Leningradets 3+ goals

4%

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

67%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

30%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)

37%

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.68, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 0.71 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.76

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.68 + Leningradets defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leningradets scores more

25%

level

32%

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

43%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff