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Leningradets vs Chita — Second League - Group 2 2020

Leningradets
Leningradets
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chita
Chita
8/1/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Roshchino Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Leningradets72%
×Draw17%
Chita11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
2.29
Chita
0.74

Leningradets creates 209% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 27 away

creates per match

Leningradets
2.24
Chita
0.70

allows per match

Leningradets
0.78
Chita
2.33

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Chita+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Chita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
89%
Leningradets or Chita
83%
Draw or Chita
28%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
48%
Chita wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
90%
Leningradets 2+ goals
66%
Leningradets 3+ goals
40%
Chita 1+ goals
52%
Chita 2+ goals
17%
Chita 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
87%
Chita (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Chita away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 2.24 + Chita defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Chita attack 0.70 + Leningradets defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Leningradets scores more
72%
level
17%
Chita scores more
11%

Leningradets at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Leningradets 2–1 Chita

Leningradets beat Chita 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Roshchino Arena in Roshchino.