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Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2024

Leningradets
Leningradets
Preview
15:00
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
8/15/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Petrovsky Stadium
48%
Arsenal Tula
model favours
25%27%48%

Leningradets score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Leningradets25%
×Draw27%
Arsenal Tula48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
0.90
Arsenal Tula
1.38

Arsenal Tula creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 41 away

creates per match

Leningradets
0.67
Arsenal Tula
0.93

allows per match

Leningradets
1.83
Arsenal Tula
1.12

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
52%
Leningradets or Arsenal Tula
73%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
75%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
8%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
59%
Leningradets 2+ goals
23%
Leningradets 3+ goals
6%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
75%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
40%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
34%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 0.67 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.90

Arsenal Tula attack 0.93 + Leningradets defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leningradets scores more
25%
level
27%
Arsenal Tula scores more
48%

Arsenal Tula at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Leningradets’s matches
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged just 0.7 goals
  • Leningradets sit 18, Arsenal Tula 5 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Leningradets
LLLDW
Tula
WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula — Match Preview

Leningradets face Arsenal Tula on August 15, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Leningradets host Arsenal Tula at Petrovsky Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.