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Leningradets vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2018

Leningradets
Leningradets
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
R. Kudryavtsev 12'
I. Geloyan 45+1'
5/16/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Roshchino Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leningradets28%
×Draw29%
Arsenal Tula43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
0.93
Arsenal Tula
1.23

Arsenal Tula creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Leningradets
0.71
Arsenal Tula
0.94

allows per match

Leningradets
1.53
Arsenal Tula
1.15

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
57%
Leningradets or Arsenal Tula
71%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
72%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
10%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
61%
Leningradets 2+ goals
24%
Leningradets 3+ goals
7%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
71%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
35%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
39%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 0.71 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.93

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + Leningradets defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leningradets scores more
28%
level
29%
Arsenal Tula scores more
43%

Arsenal Tula at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
R. Kudryavtsev
23'
D. Barkov← A. Makarov
34'
Vladislav Shepelev
42'
Roman Kudryavtsev
45+1'
I. Geloyan
46'
R. Kazakov← A. Khityaev
46'
A. Sukhanov← A. Korotkov
63'
M. Bachinskiy← S. Ilyin
67'
I. Nduka← M. Kaynov
75'
V. Volkov← V. Shepelev
75'
N. Morozov← R. Apekov
77'
A. Arutyunov← J. Okoronkwo
77'
A. Khabibov← I. Geloyan
82'
S. Nikolaev← N. Rozmanov

Statistics

LeningradetsArsenal
Discipline
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

First League: Leningradets 1–1 Arsenal Tula

Leningradets and Arsenal Tula drew 1-1 in First League on May 16, 2024.

Goals: R. Kudryavtsev (12'), I. Geloyan (45+1').

The match was played at Roshchino Arena in Roshchino.