Lenense 2–1 Llanes: Result & Stats

Lenense

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Llanes

Lucas Rodríguez 60'

Pablo Gutiérrez 28'

Juan Cueto 89'

1/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Lenense38%

×Draw27%

Llanes35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LenenseExpected goals in this matchLlanes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

Lenense

1.31

Llanes

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 94 away

1.27

creates per match

1.19

1.32

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Lenense

1.27

Llanes

1.19

allows per match

Lenense

1.32

Llanes

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par

Llanes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Llanes →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lenense or draw

65%

Lenense or Llanes

73%

Draw or Llanes

62%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+

17%

Llanes wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals

73%

Lenense 2+ goals

38%

Lenense 3+ goals

14%

Llanes 1+ goals

71%

Llanes 2+ goals

36%

Llanes 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)

52%

Llanes (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Llanes away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.36 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Llanes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Llanes attack 1.19 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lenense scores more

38%

level

27%

Llanes scores more

35%

Lenense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Pablo Gutiérrez

46'

Pablo Álvarez← Genaro

46'

Néstor Ruiz← Álvaro García

60'

Lucas Rodríguez

68'

Luismi← Pablo Gutiérrez

77'

Pablo Flórez← A. Al Moukhtar

77'

Juan Cueto← B. Ndiaye

79'

Dani Pérez← Monasterio

79'

Sergio González← Borja Sierra

83'

Guillermo Vaamonde← Alvaro Sánchez

83'

Pablo Coutado← Lucas Rodríguez

89'

Juan Cueto

Lenense

Llanes

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gutiérrez

▼

Sierra

⚽

▼

Rodríguez

▼

Monasteri

Manager: Héctor Suárez

68'▲Luismi←▼Pablo Gutiérrez

79'▲Dani Pérez←▼Monasterio

79'▲Sergio González←▼Borja Sierra

83'▲Guillermo Vaamonde←▼Alvaro Sánchez

83'▲Pablo Coutado←▼Lucas Rodríguez

Lenense substitutes

LuismiPérezGonzálezVaamondeCoutado

Manager: Luis Arturo

46'▲Pablo Álvarez←▼Genaro

46'▲Néstor Ruiz←▼Álvaro García

77'▲Pablo Flórez←▼A. Al Moukhtar

77'▲Juan Cueto←▼B. Ndiaye

Llanes substitutes

ÁlvarezRuizFlórezCueto

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Lenense 2–1 Llanes

Lenense beat Llanes 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 14, 2024.

Goals: Pablo Gutiérrez (28'), Lucas Rodríguez (60'), Juan Cueto (89').

The match was played at Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón in Pola de Lena.

Lenense vs Llanes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Lenense 2–1 Llanes