Lenense 1–1 Condal: Result & Stats

Lenense

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Condal

Dani Pérez 6'

Damián Pérez 54'

10/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Lenense50%

×Draw26%

Condal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LenenseExpected goals in this matchCondal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.99

Lenense

1.52

Condal

0.99

Lenense creates 54% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 77 away

1.27

creates per match

0.66

1.32

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Lenense

1.27

Condal

0.66

allows per match

Lenense

1.32

Condal

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par

Condal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Condal →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lenense or draw

75%

Lenense or Condal

74%

Draw or Condal

50%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+

25%

Condal wins by 2+

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals

78%

Lenense 2+ goals

45%

Lenense 3+ goals

20%

Condal 1+ goals

63%

Condal 2+ goals

26%

Condal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)

67%

Condal (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Condal away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Condal defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Condal attack 0.66 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lenense scores more

50%

level

26%

Condal scores more

25%

Lenense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Dani Pérez

54'

Damián Pérez

58'

Sergio Rueda← Álvaro Roces

58'

Antonio García← Rober

69'

Pelayo Vigil← Wilmer Castañeda

78'

Jandro← Borja Sierra

86'

Marcos Ordóñez← Ángel Rodríguez

90'

Diego Aldariz← Pablo Coutado

Lenense

Condal

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Héctor Suárez

78'▲Jandro←▼Borja Sierra

90'▲Diego Aldariz←▼Pablo Coutado

Lenense substitutes

JandroAldariz

Manager: Dani Roces

58'▲Sergio Rueda←▼Álvaro Roces

58'▲Antonio García←▼Rober

69'▲Pelayo Vigil←▼Wilmer Castañeda

86'▲Marcos Ordóñez←▼Ángel Rodríguez

Condal substitutes

RuedaGarcíaVigilOrdóñez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Lenense 1–1 Condal

Lenense and Condal drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 8, 2023.

Goals: Dani Pérez (6'), Damián Pérez (54').

The match was played at Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón in Pola de Lena.

Lenense vs Condal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Lenense 1–1 Condal