Lenense 1–2 Ceares: Result & Stats

Lenense

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ceares

Pablo Coutado 81'

Pablo Miranda 86'

Pablo Rodriguez 41'

3/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Finstral El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Lenense36%

×Draw27%

Ceares37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LenenseExpected goals in this matchCeares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.26

Lenense

1.23

Ceares

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 93 away

1.27

creates per match

1.20

1.32

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Lenense

1.27

Ceares

1.20

allows per match

Lenense

1.32

Ceares

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par

Ceares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

Ceares →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lenense or draw

63%

Lenense or Ceares

73%

Draw or Ceares

64%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+

15%

Ceares wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals

71%

Lenense 2+ goals

35%

Lenense 3+ goals

13%

Ceares 1+ goals

72%

Ceares 2+ goals

36%

Ceares 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)

49%

Ceares (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

Ceares away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.19 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + Ceares defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ceares attack 1.20 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lenense scores more

36%

level

27%

Ceares scores more

37%

Ceares at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ceares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

E. B. Gonzalez

41'

Pablo Rodriguez

46'

Pablo Coutado← Denzel

46'

Dani Pérez← Albert Montalbo

71'

Tomas Caccia← Monasterio

71'

Pablo Miranda← Carlos Madeira

79'

Mateo Nistal← Adrián Rodríguez

81'

Pablo Coutado

82'

F. Daifi← Puyi

86'

Pablo Miranda

88'

Mateo← Xurde Méndez

88'

Samu Pereda← Erasmo

Lenense

Ceares

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Manolo Simón

46'▲Pablo Coutado←▼Denzel

46'▲Dani Pérez←▼Albert Montalbo

71'▲Tomas Caccia←▼Monasterio

82'▲F. Daifi←▼Puyi

Lenense substitutes

CoutadoPérezCacciaDaifi

Manager: Jorge Menéndez

71'▲Pablo Miranda←▼Carlos Madeira

79'▲Mateo Nistal←▼Adrián Rodríguez

88'▲Mateo←▼Xurde Méndez

88'▲Samu Pereda←▼Erasmo

Ceares substitutes

MirandaNistalMateoPereda

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Lenense 1–2 Ceares

Ceares beat Lenense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 23, 2025.

Goals: Pablo Rodriguez (41'), Pablo Coutado (81'), Pablo Miranda (86').

The match was played at Estadio Finstral El Sotón in Pola de Lena.

Lenense vs Ceares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Lenense 1–2 Ceares