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Lendorf vs St. Michael Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Lendorf
Lendorf
FT
7 – 2
St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
11/9/2019Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 16Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lendorf52%
×Draw23%
St. Michael Bleiburg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lendorf
1.89
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.25

Lendorf creates 51% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lendorf
1.75
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.16

allows per match

Lendorf
1.35
St. Michael Bleiburg
2.03

finishing

Lendorf+0.00on par
St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lendorf ↓

St. Michael Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lendorf or draw
75%
Lendorf or St. Michael Bleiburg
77%
Draw or St. Michael Bleiburg
48%

Winning margin

Lendorf wins by 2+
30%
St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lendorf 1+ goals
85%
Lendorf 2+ goals
56%
Lendorf 3+ goals
29%
St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
71%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
36%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lendorf (draw refunded)
67%
St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lendorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.35 · 92 matches

St. Michael Bleiburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lendorf attack 1.75 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.89

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.16 + Lendorf defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lendorf scores more
52%
level
23%
St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
25%

Lendorf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Lendorf 7–2 St. Michael Bleiburg

Lendorf beat St. Michael Bleiburg 7-2 in Landesliga - Karnten on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena in Lendorf.