Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lendorf vs St. Jakob Rosental — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Lendorf
Lendorf
FT
1 – 2
St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
3/24/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 22Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Lendorf43%
×Draw24%
St. Jakob Rosental33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lendorf
1.65
St. Jakob Rosental
1.43

Lendorf creates 15% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 76 away

creates per match

Lendorf
1.75
St. Jakob Rosental
1.51

allows per match

Lendorf
1.35
St. Jakob Rosental
1.55

finishing

Lendorf+0.00on par
St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lendorf ↓

St. Jakob Rosental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lendorf or draw
67%
Lendorf or St. Jakob Rosental
76%
Draw or St. Jakob Rosental
57%

Winning margin

Lendorf wins by 2+
22%
St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lendorf 1+ goals
81%
Lendorf 2+ goals
49%
Lendorf 3+ goals
23%
St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
76%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
42%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lendorf (draw refunded)
56%
St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lendorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.35 · 92 matches

St. Jakob Rosental away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.55 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lendorf attack 1.75 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.65

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.51 + Lendorf defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lendorf scores more
43%
level
24%
St. Jakob Rosental scores more
33%

Lendorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lendorf 1 – 2 St. Jakob Rosental

St. Jakob Rosental beat Lendorf 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 24, 2023.

The match was played at Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena in Lendorf.