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Lendorf vs Hertha — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Lendorf
Lendorf
FT
1 – 2
Hertha
Hertha
3/17/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 17Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena (Lendorf)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lendorf28%
×Draw22%
Hertha51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lendorf
1.42
Hertha
1.99

Hertha creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

creates per match

Lendorf
1.20
Hertha
1.77

allows per match

Lendorf
2.20
Hertha
1.64

finishing

Lendorf+0.00on par
Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lendorf ↓

Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lendorf or draw
49%
Lendorf or Hertha
78%
Draw or Hertha
72%

Winning margin

Lendorf wins by 2+
12%
Hertha wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Lendorf 1+ goals
76%
Lendorf 2+ goals
41%
Lendorf 3+ goals
17%
Hertha 1+ goals
86%
Hertha 2+ goals
59%
Hertha 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Lendorf (draw refunded)
35%
Hertha (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lendorf at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Hertha away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.64 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lendorf attack 1.20 + Hertha defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hertha attack 1.77 + Lendorf defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lendorf scores more
28%
level
22%
Hertha scores more
51%

Hertha at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lendorf vs Hertha

Hertha beat Lendorf 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena (Lendorf).