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Lendorf vs Admira Villach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Lendorf
Lendorf
FT
1 – 1
Admira Villach
Admira Villach
10/22/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 15Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lendorf65%
×Draw18%
Admira Villach17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lendorf
2.41
Admira Villach
1.15

Lendorf creates 110% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lendorf
1.75
Admira Villach
0.94

allows per match

Lendorf
1.35
Admira Villach
3.06

finishing

Lendorf+0.00on par
Admira Villach+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lendorf ↓

Admira Villach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Lendorf or draw
83%
Lendorf or Admira Villach
82%
Draw or Admira Villach
35%

Winning margin

Lendorf wins by 2+
43%
Admira Villach wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lendorf 1+ goals
91%
Lendorf 2+ goals
69%
Lendorf 3+ goals
43%
Admira Villach 1+ goals
68%
Admira Villach 2+ goals
32%
Admira Villach 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lendorf (draw refunded)
79%
Admira Villach (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lendorf at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.35 · 92 matches

Admira Villach away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lendorf attack 1.75 + Admira Villach defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.41

Admira Villach attack 0.94 + Lendorf defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lendorf scores more
65%
level
18%
Admira Villach scores more
17%

Lendorf at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Lendorf 1–1 Admira Villach

Lendorf and Admira Villach drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 22, 2021.

The match was played at Thomas-Morgenstern-Arena in Lendorf.