Leixoes 0–1 Vizela: Result & Stats | Segunda Liga

Leixoes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vizela

U. Milovanović 69'

9/15/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 5Estádio do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Leixoes33%

×Draw28%

Vizela39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeixoesExpected goals in this matchVizela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.25

Leixoes

1.11

Vizela

1.25

Vizela creates 13% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 51 away

1.15

creates per match

1.33

1.18

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Leixoes

1.15

Vizela

1.33

allows per match

Leixoes

1.18

Vizela

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leixoes+0.00on par

Vizela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixoes ↓

Vizela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leixoes or draw

61%

Leixoes or Vizela

72%

Draw or Vizela

67%

Winning margin

Leixoes wins by 2+

13%

Vizela wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Leixoes 1+ goals

67%

Leixoes 2+ goals

30%

Leixoes 3+ goals

10%

Vizela 1+ goals

71%

Vizela 2+ goals

36%

Vizela 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Leixoes (draw refunded)

45%

Vizela (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixoes at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.18 · 130 matches

Vizela away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixoes attack 1.15 + Vizela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Vizela attack 1.33 + Leixoes defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leixoes scores more

33%

level

28%

Vizela scores more

39%

Vizela at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vizela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

Uroš Milovanović

39'

Paulinho

61'

André André

66'

Werton← Paulité

67'

Prosper Obah

69'

U. Milovanović

75'

Fabinho← André Simões

75'

Ricardo Valente← André André

75'

I. Alhassan← Paulinho

76'

N. Thio← U. Milovanović

82'

Miguel Ángel Morro

83'

Diogo Nascimento← A. Bastunov

83'

Vivaldo Semedo← D. Loppy

84'

M. Touré← R. NDo

87'

Aleksandar Busnić

90+3'

Rodrigo Ramos← P. Obah

90+3'

M. Tol← Yannick Semedo

Statistics

LeixoesVizela

Discipline

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0