Leixoes 5–1 Vilaverdense: Result & Stats

Leixoes

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vilaverdense

10/16/2021

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Leixoes46%

×Draw20%

Vilaverdense33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeixoesExpected goals in this matchVilaverdense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.90

Leixoes

2.26

Vilaverdense

1.90

Leixoes creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.38

creates per match

2.29

1.50

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Leixoes

2.38

Vilaverdense

2.29

allows per match

Leixoes

1.50

Vilaverdense

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leixoes+0.00on par

Vilaverdense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixoes ↓

Vilaverdense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Leixoes or draw

67%

Leixoes or Vilaverdense

80%

Draw or Vilaverdense

54%

Winning margin

Leixoes wins by 2+

27%

Vilaverdense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Leixoes 1+ goals

89%

Leixoes 2+ goals

66%

Leixoes 3+ goals

39%

Vilaverdense 1+ goals

85%

Vilaverdense 2+ goals

56%

Vilaverdense 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Leixoes (draw refunded)

58%

Vilaverdense (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixoes at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Vilaverdense away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixoes attack 2.38 + Vilaverdense defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.26

Vilaverdense attack 2.29 + Leixoes defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leixoes scores more

46%

level

20%

Vilaverdense scores more

33%

Leixoes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leixoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff