Leixoes 1–0 Torreense: Result & Stats

Leixoes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torreense

11/9/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 11Estádio do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Leixoes36%

×Draw28%

Torreense36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeixoesExpected goals in this matchTorreense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

Leixoes

1.17

Torreense

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 68 away

1.17

creates per match

1.15

1.19

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Leixoes

1.17

Torreense

1.15

allows per match

Leixoes

1.19

Torreense

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leixoes+0.00on par

Torreense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixoes ↓

Torreense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Leixoes or draw

64%

Leixoes or Torreense

72%

Draw or Torreense

64%

Winning margin

Leixoes wins by 2+

15%

Torreense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leixoes 1+ goals

69%

Leixoes 2+ goals

33%

Leixoes 3+ goals

11%

Torreense 1+ goals

69%

Torreense 2+ goals

33%

Torreense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leixoes (draw refunded)

50%

Torreense (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixoes at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 133 matches

Torreense away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixoes attack 1.17 + Torreense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Torreense attack 1.15 + Leixoes defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Leixoes scores more

36%

level

28%

Torreense scores more

36%

Leixoes at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Leixoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff