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Leixoes vs Santa Clara — Taça de Portugal 2018

Leixoes
Leixoes
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
11/22/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Leixoes42%
×Draw23%
Santa Clara35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leixoes
1.73
Santa Clara
1.57

Leixoes creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Leixoes
2.38
Santa Clara
1.64

allows per match

Leixoes
1.50
Santa Clara
1.07

finishing

Leixoes+0.00on par
Santa Clara+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixoes ↓

Santa Clara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Leixoes or draw
65%
Leixoes or Santa Clara
77%
Draw or Santa Clara
58%

Winning margin

Leixoes wins by 2+
22%
Santa Clara wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Leixoes 1+ goals
82%
Leixoes 2+ goals
52%
Leixoes 3+ goals
25%
Santa Clara 1+ goals
79%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
46%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Leixoes (draw refunded)
54%
Santa Clara (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixoes at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Santa Clara away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixoes attack 2.38 + Santa Clara defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.73

Santa Clara attack 1.64 + Leixoes defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leixoes scores more
42%
level
23%
Santa Clara scores more
35%

Leixoes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leixoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leixoes vs Santa Clara

Santa Clara beat Leixoes 4-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Mar in Matosinhos.