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Leixoes vs Penafiel — Segunda Liga 2018

Leixoes
Leixoes
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Penafiel
Penafiel
4/27/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 31Estádio do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Leixoes41%
×Draw28%
Penafiel32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leixoes
1.29
Penafiel
1.10

Leixoes creates 17% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 132 away

creates per match

Leixoes
1.17
Penafiel
1.01

allows per match

Leixoes
1.19
Penafiel
1.41

finishing

Leixoes+0.00on par
Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixoes ↓

Penafiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leixoes or draw
68%
Leixoes or Penafiel
72%
Draw or Penafiel
59%

Winning margin

Leixoes wins by 2+
18%
Penafiel wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leixoes 1+ goals
72%
Leixoes 2+ goals
37%
Leixoes 3+ goals
14%
Penafiel 1+ goals
67%
Penafiel 2+ goals
30%
Penafiel 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leixoes (draw refunded)
56%
Penafiel (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixoes at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 133 matches

Penafiel away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixoes attack 1.17 + Penafiel defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Penafiel attack 1.01 + Leixoes defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leixoes scores more
41%
level
28%
Penafiel scores more
32%

Leixoes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leixoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leixoes vs Penafiel

Leixoes beat Penafiel 3-1 in Segunda Liga on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio do Mar in Matosinhos.