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Leixoes vs Feirense — Segunda Liga 2018

Leixoes
Leixoes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Feirense
Feirense
2/7/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 21Estádio do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Leixoes37%
×Draw28%
Feirense35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leixoes
1.17
Feirense
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 115 away

creates per match

Leixoes
1.17
Feirense
1.09

allows per match

Leixoes
1.19
Feirense
1.18

finishing

Leixoes+0.00on par
Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixoes ↓

Feirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leixoes or draw
65%
Leixoes or Feirense
72%
Draw or Feirense
63%

Winning margin

Leixoes wins by 2+
15%
Feirense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Leixoes 1+ goals
69%
Leixoes 2+ goals
33%
Leixoes 3+ goals
11%
Feirense 1+ goals
68%
Feirense 2+ goals
32%
Feirense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leixoes (draw refunded)
51%
Feirense (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixoes at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 133 matches

Feirense away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixoes attack 1.17 + Feirense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Feirense attack 1.09 + Leixoes defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Leixoes scores more
37%
level
28%
Feirense scores more
35%

Leixoes at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leixoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leixoes vs Feirense

Leixoes beat Feirense 2-1 in Segunda Liga on February 7, 2026.

The match was played at Estádio do Mar in Matosinhos.