Leixoes 3–0 FC Porto B: Result & Stats

Leixoes

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

FC Porto B

10/27/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 9Estádio do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Leixoes40%

×Draw27%

FC Porto B33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeixoesExpected goals in this matchFC Porto B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.19

Leixoes

1.35

FC Porto B

1.19

Leixoes creates 13% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 133 away

1.17

creates per match

1.18

1.19

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Leixoes

1.17

FC Porto B

1.18

allows per match

Leixoes

1.19

FC Porto B

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leixoes+0.00on par

FC Porto B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixoes ↓

FC Porto B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leixoes or draw

67%

Leixoes or FC Porto B

73%

Draw or FC Porto B

60%

Winning margin

Leixoes wins by 2+

19%

FC Porto B wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leixoes 1+ goals

74%

Leixoes 2+ goals

39%

Leixoes 3+ goals

15%

FC Porto B 1+ goals

70%

FC Porto B 2+ goals

33%

FC Porto B 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leixoes (draw refunded)

55%

FC Porto B (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixoes at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 133 matches

FC Porto B away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixoes attack 1.17 + FC Porto B defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

FC Porto B attack 1.18 + Leixoes defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leixoes scores more

40%

level

27%

FC Porto B scores more

33%

Leixoes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leixoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff