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Leixoes vs AVS — Segunda Liga 2018

Leixoes
Leixoes
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AVS
AVS
5/12/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 33Estádio do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leixoes28%
×Draw26%
AVS46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leixoes
1.11
AVS
1.48

AVS creates 33% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 17 away

creates per match

Leixoes
1.17
AVS
1.76

allows per match

Leixoes
1.19
AVS
1.06

finishing

Leixoes+0.00on par
AVS+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixoes ↓

AVS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leixoes or draw
54%
Leixoes or AVS
74%
Draw or AVS
72%

Winning margin

Leixoes wins by 2+
11%
AVS wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Leixoes 1+ goals
67%
Leixoes 2+ goals
30%
Leixoes 3+ goals
10%
AVS 1+ goals
77%
AVS 2+ goals
43%
AVS 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Leixoes (draw refunded)
38%
AVS (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixoes at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 133 matches

AVS away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixoes attack 1.17 + AVS defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

AVS attack 1.76 + Leixoes defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leixoes scores more
28%
level
26%
AVS scores more
46%

AVS at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Leixoes 0–0 AVS

Leixoes and AVS drew 0-0 in Segunda Liga on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Mar in Matosinhos.