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Yokohama FC vs V-varen Nagasaki — J2 League 2018

Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
11/3/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 39Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium (Yokohama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Yokohama FC42%
×Draw26%
V-varen Nagasaki32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama FC
1.46
V-varen Nagasaki
1.25

Yokohama FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 143 away

creates per match

Yokohama FC
1.68
V-varen Nagasaki
1.48

allows per match

Yokohama FC
1.02
V-varen Nagasaki
1.25

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw
68%
Yokohama FC or V-varen Nagasaki
74%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
58%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+
20%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals
77%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
43%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
18%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
71%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
36%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
56%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.68 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.48 + Yokohama FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yokohama FC scores more
42%
level
26%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
32%

Yokohama FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Yokohama FC 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki

Yokohama FC beat V-varen Nagasaki 2-0 in J2 League on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium (Yokohama).