Leioa 1–3 Uritarra: Result & Stats

Leioa

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Uritarra

11/6/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Estadio Sarriena 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Leioa50%

×Draw26%

Uritarra24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeioaExpected goals in this matchUritarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.96

Leioa

1.50

Uritarra

0.96

Leioa creates 56% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 19 away

1.79

creates per match

0.84

1.08

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Leioa

1.79

Uritarra

0.84

allows per match

Leioa

1.08

Uritarra

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par

Uritarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Uritarra →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leioa or draw

76%

Leioa or Uritarra

74%

Draw or Uritarra

50%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+

25%

Uritarra wins by 2+

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals

78%

Leioa 2+ goals

44%

Leioa 3+ goals

19%

Uritarra 1+ goals

62%

Uritarra 2+ goals

25%

Uritarra 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)

67%

Uritarra (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.08 · 86 matches

Uritarra away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.79 + Uritarra defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Uritarra attack 0.84 + Leioa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leioa scores more

50%

level

26%

Uritarra scores more

24%

Leioa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff