Leioa 2–0 UD San Fernando: Result & Stats

Leioa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UD San Fernando

5/28/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsEstadio Sarriena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Leioa55%

×Draw28%

UD San Fernando17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeioaExpected goals in this matchUD San Fernando

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.65

Leioa

1.39

UD San Fernando

0.65

Leioa creates 114% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.60

creates per match

0.50

0.80

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Leioa

1.60

UD San Fernando

0.50

allows per match

Leioa

0.80

UD San Fernando

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par

UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

UD San Fernando →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Leioa or draw

83%

Leioa or UD San Fernando

72%

Draw or UD San Fernando

45%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+

27%

UD San Fernando wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals

75%

Leioa 2+ goals

40%

Leioa 3+ goals

16%

UD San Fernando 1+ goals

48%

UD San Fernando 2+ goals

14%

UD San Fernando 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)

76%

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.60 + UD San Fernando defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

UD San Fernando attack 0.50 + Leioa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Leioa scores more

55%

level

28%

UD San Fernando scores more

17%

Leioa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff