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Leioa vs Tolosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Leioa
Leioa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tolosa
Tolosa
10/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Estadio Sarriena 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Leioa55%
×Draw24%
Tolosa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leioa
1.76
Tolosa
1.02

Leioa creates 73% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 48 away

creates per match

Leioa
1.79
Tolosa
0.96

allows per match

Leioa
1.08
Tolosa
1.73

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par
Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Tolosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Leioa or draw
78%
Leioa or Tolosa
76%
Draw or Tolosa
45%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+
30%
Tolosa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals
83%
Leioa 2+ goals
52%
Leioa 3+ goals
26%
Tolosa 1+ goals
64%
Tolosa 2+ goals
27%
Tolosa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)
71%
Tolosa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.08 · 86 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.79 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.76

Tolosa attack 0.96 + Leioa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Leioa scores more
55%
level
24%
Tolosa scores more
22%

Leioa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Leioa 0–0 Tolosa

Leioa and Tolosa drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Sarriena 4 in Leioa.