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Leioa vs San Viator — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Leioa
Leioa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Viator
San Viator
9/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Estadio Sarriena 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leioa74%
×Draw15%
San Viator10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leioa
2.60
San Viator
0.86

Leioa creates 202% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 17 away

creates per match

Leioa
1.79
San Viator
0.65

allows per match

Leioa
1.08
San Viator
3.41

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par
San Viator+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

San Viator →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Leioa or draw
90%
Leioa or San Viator
85%
Draw or San Viator
26%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+
52%
San Viator wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals
92%
Leioa 2+ goals
73%
Leioa 3+ goals
47%
San Viator 1+ goals
58%
San Viator 2+ goals
21%
San Viator 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)
88%
San Viator (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.08 · 86 matches

San Viator away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.79 + San Viator defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.60

San Viator attack 0.65 + Leioa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Leioa scores more
74%
level
15%
San Viator scores more
10%

Leioa at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Leioa 3–1 San Viator

Leioa beat San Viator 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Sarriena 4 in Leioa.