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Leioa vs Racing Santander — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Leioa
Leioa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
12/2/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Sarriena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Leioa31%
×Draw26%
Racing Santander43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leioa
1.20
Racing Santander
1.45

Racing Santander creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

Leioa
1.25
Racing Santander
1.69

allows per match

Leioa
1.21
Racing Santander
1.15

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leioa or draw
57%
Leioa or Racing Santander
74%
Draw or Racing Santander
69%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+
13%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals
70%
Leioa 2+ goals
34%
Leioa 3+ goals
12%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
77%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
42%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)
42%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.25 + Racing Santander defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

Racing Santander attack 1.69 + Leioa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leioa scores more
31%
level
26%
Racing Santander scores more
43%

Racing Santander at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Leioa 1–0 Racing Santander

Leioa beat Racing Santander 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Sarriena in Leioa.