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Leioa vs Laredo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Leioa
Leioa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Laredo
Laredo
3/21/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Estadio Sarriena 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Leioa54%
×Draw24%
Laredo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leioa
1.67
Laredo
0.95

Leioa creates 76% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

Leioa
1.25
Laredo
0.69

allows per match

Leioa
1.21
Laredo
2.08

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par
Laredo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Laredo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leioa or draw
79%
Leioa or Laredo
76%
Draw or Laredo
46%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+
29%
Laredo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals
81%
Leioa 2+ goals
50%
Leioa 3+ goals
23%
Laredo 1+ goals
61%
Laredo 2+ goals
25%
Laredo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)
72%
Laredo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Laredo away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.25 + Laredo defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.67

Laredo attack 0.69 + Leioa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Leioa scores more
54%
level
24%
Laredo scores more
21%

Leioa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leioa vs Laredo

Laredo beat Leioa 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Sarriena 4 in Leioa.