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Leioa vs Haro Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Leioa
Leioa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
5/8/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Sarriena 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Leioa42%
×Draw28%
Haro Deportivo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leioa
1.29
Haro Deportivo
1.05

Leioa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Leioa
1.25
Haro Deportivo
0.89

allows per match

Leioa
1.21
Haro Deportivo
1.32

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leioa or draw
70%
Leioa or Haro Deportivo
72%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
58%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+
19%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals
72%
Leioa 2+ goals
37%
Leioa 3+ goals
14%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
65%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
28%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)
58%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.25 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Haro Deportivo attack 0.89 + Leioa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leioa scores more
42%
level
28%
Haro Deportivo scores more
30%

Leioa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Leioa 2–1 Haro Deportivo

Leioa beat Haro Deportivo 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Sarriena 4 in Leioa.