Leioa 3–3 Calahorra: Result & Stats

Leioa

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Calahorra

Lander Yurrebaso 89', 31'

Mikel Pradera 35'

Chacopino 40'

Cristian Fernández 23'

Jorge Fernández 1' (pen)

10/12/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Sarriena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Leioa40%

×Draw29%

Calahorra31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeioaExpected goals in this matchCalahorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.99

Leioa

1.16

Calahorra

0.99

Leioa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 46 away

1.25

creates per match

0.78

1.21

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Leioa

1.25

Calahorra

0.78

allows per match

Leioa

1.21

Calahorra

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par

Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Calahorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Leioa or draw

69%

Leioa or Calahorra

71%

Draw or Calahorra

60%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+

17%

Calahorra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals

69%

Leioa 2+ goals

32%

Leioa 3+ goals

11%

Calahorra 1+ goals

63%

Calahorra 2+ goals

26%

Calahorra 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)

56%

Calahorra (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Calahorra away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.25 + Calahorra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Calahorra attack 0.78 + Leioa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leioa scores more

40%

level

29%

Calahorra scores more

31%

Leioa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Jorge FernándezPenalty

23'

31'

35'

40'

46'

Sergio Parla← Joan Rojas

58'

Adrien Goñi← Fernando Carralero

63'

Raly← Íñigo Ibargoien

68'

Echaide← José Ramón

78'

Chris← Jon Madrazo

83'

Alain Ribeiro← Alex Iriondo

89'

Lander Yurrebaso

Leioa

Calahorra

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

Manager: Jon Lambea

63'▲Raly←▼Íñigo Ibargoien

78'▲Chris←▼Jon Madrazo

83'▲Alain Ribeiro←▼Alex Iriondo

Leioa substitutes

RalyChrisRibeiroMorcilloNicolásVegaJuaristi

Manager: Miguel Sola

46'▲Sergio Parla←▼Joan Rojas

58'▲Adrien Goñi←▼Fernando Carralero

68'▲Echaide←▼José Ramón

Calahorra substitutes

ParlaGoñiEchaideAlegríaAranaDíazBenito