Leioa 1–0 Barakaldo: Result & Stats

Leioa

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barakaldo

Galder Dwomoh 13'

2/20/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Estadio Sarriena 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Leioa35%

×Draw26%

Barakaldo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeioaExpected goals in this matchBarakaldo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.41

Leioa

1.30

Barakaldo

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 34 away

1.79

creates per match

1.74

1.08

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Leioa

1.79

Barakaldo

1.74

allows per match

Leioa

1.08

Barakaldo

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Barakaldo →

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leioa or draw

60%

Leioa or Barakaldo

74%

Draw or Barakaldo

65%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+

15%

Barakaldo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals

73%

Leioa 2+ goals

37%

Leioa 3+ goals

14%

Barakaldo 1+ goals

76%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

41%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)

47%

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.08 · 86 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.79 + Barakaldo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.30

Barakaldo attack 1.74 + Leioa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leioa scores more

35%

level

26%

Barakaldo scores more

40%

Barakaldo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Galder Dwomoh

60'

Yaniz← Galder Dwomoh

61'

Ekaitz Fernández← Lander Torrealdai

70'

Chopi← Izan Gutiérrez

72'

Urki Txoperena← Guille Ruiz

72'

Mikel Juaristi← Markel Mayo

78'

Iñigo Pisón← Jon Elorza

78'

Ander Artabe← Haritz Estivariz

84'

Xabi Mayordomo← Josu Gallastegui

84'

Borja Álvarez← Vellisca

Leioa

Barakaldo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Dwomoh

▼

Elorza

Manager: Andoitz Galdós

60'▲Yaniz←▼Galder Dwomoh

70'▲Chopi←▼Izan Gutiérrez

78'▲Iñigo Pisón←▼Jon Elorza

78'▲Ander Artabe←▼Haritz Estivariz

Leioa substitutes

YanizChopiPisónArtabe

Manager: Nando Alonso

61'▲Ekaitz Fernández←▼Lander Torrealdai

72'▲Urki Txoperena←▼Guille Ruiz

72'▲Mikel Juaristi←▼Markel Mayo

84'▲Xabi Mayordomo←▼Josu Gallastegui

84'▲Borja Álvarez←▼Vellisca

Barakaldo substitutes

FernándezTxoperenaJuaristiMayordomoÁlvarez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Leioa 1–0 Barakaldo

Leioa beat Barakaldo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 20, 2022.

Goals: Galder Dwomoh (13').

The match was played at Estadio Sarriena 4 in Leioa.

Leioa vs Barakaldo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Leioa 1–0 Barakaldo