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Leioa vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Leioa
Leioa
CANC
00:00
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
4/5/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Estadio Sarriena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Leioa40%
×Draw28%
Arenas Getxo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leioa
1.25
Arenas Getxo
1.10

Leioa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

Leioa
1.25
Arenas Getxo
1.00

allows per match

Leioa
1.21
Arenas Getxo
1.26

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leioa or draw
68%
Leioa or Arenas Getxo
72%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
60%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+
17%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals
71%
Leioa 2+ goals
36%
Leioa 3+ goals
13%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
67%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
30%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)
55%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.25 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Arenas Getxo attack 1.00 + Leioa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leioa scores more
40%
level
28%
Arenas Getxo scores more
32%

Leioa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leioa host Arenas Getxo

April 5, 2020: Leioa take on Arenas Getxo in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Leioa host Arenas Getxo at Estadio Sarriena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.