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Leioa vs Amurrio Club — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Leioa
Leioa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Amurrio Club
Amurrio Club
11/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Estadio Sarriena 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Leioa51%
×Draw25%
Amurrio Club23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leioa
1.56
Amurrio Club
0.96

Leioa creates 63% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 19 away

creates per match

Leioa
1.79
Amurrio Club
0.84

allows per match

Leioa
1.08
Amurrio Club
1.32

finishing

Leioa+0.00on par
Amurrio Club+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leioa ↓

Amurrio Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leioa or draw
77%
Leioa or Amurrio Club
75%
Draw or Amurrio Club
49%

Winning margin

Leioa wins by 2+
27%
Amurrio Club wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Leioa 1+ goals
79%
Leioa 2+ goals
46%
Leioa 3+ goals
21%
Amurrio Club 1+ goals
62%
Amurrio Club 2+ goals
25%
Amurrio Club 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leioa (draw refunded)
69%
Amurrio Club (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leioa at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.08 · 86 matches

Amurrio Club away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leioa attack 1.79 + Amurrio Club defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Amurrio Club attack 0.84 + Leioa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Leioa scores more
51%
level
25%
Amurrio Club scores more
23%

Leioa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leioa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leioa vs Amurrio Club

Leioa beat Amurrio Club 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Sarriena 4 in Leioa.