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Leinfelden-Echterdingen vs VfR Aalen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
Leinfelden-Echterdingen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
VfR Aalen
VfR Aalen
5/24/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 33Rasenplatz Sportpark Goldäcker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leinfelden-Echterdingen22%
×Draw22%
VfR Aalen56%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
1.19
VfR Aalen
2.01

VfR Aalen creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
1.41
VfR Aalen
2.03

allows per match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
2.00
VfR Aalen
0.97

finishing

Leinfelden-Echterdingen+0.00on par
VfR Aalen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leinfelden-Echterdingen ↓

VfR Aalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Leinfelden-Echterdingen or draw
44%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen or VfR Aalen
78%
Draw or VfR Aalen
78%

Winning margin

Leinfelden-Echterdingen wins by 2+
9%
VfR Aalen wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 1+ goals
70%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen 2+ goals
33%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen 3+ goals
12%
VfR Aalen 1+ goals
87%
VfR Aalen 2+ goals
59%
VfR Aalen 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Leinfelden-Echterdingen (draw refunded)
28%
VfR Aalen (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leinfelden-Echterdingen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

VfR Aalen away — creates 2.03, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen attack 1.41 + VfR Aalen defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.19

VfR Aalen attack 2.03 + Leinfelden-Echterdingen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Leinfelden-Echterdingen scores more
22%
level
22%
VfR Aalen scores more
56%

VfR Aalen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "VfR Aalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Leinfelden-Echterdingen 1–3 VfR Aalen

VfR Aalen beat Leinfelden-Echterdingen 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Sportpark Goldäcker in Leinfelden-Echterdingen.