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Leinfelden-Echterdingen vs FV Ravensburg — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
Leinfelden-Echterdingen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FV Ravensburg
FV Ravensburg
10/6/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 11Rasenplatz Sportpark Goldäcker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leinfelden-Echterdingen36%
×Draw23%
FV Ravensburg41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
1.61
FV Ravensburg
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

creates per match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
1.41
FV Ravensburg
1.49

allows per match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
2.00
FV Ravensburg
1.81

finishing

Leinfelden-Echterdingen+0.00on par
FV Ravensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leinfelden-Echterdingen ↓

FV Ravensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Leinfelden-Echterdingen or draw
59%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen or FV Ravensburg
77%
Draw or FV Ravensburg
64%

Winning margin

Leinfelden-Echterdingen wins by 2+
17%
FV Ravensburg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 1+ goals
80%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen 2+ goals
48%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen 3+ goals
22%
FV Ravensburg 1+ goals
83%
FV Ravensburg 2+ goals
52%
FV Ravensburg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Leinfelden-Echterdingen (draw refunded)
46%
FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leinfelden-Echterdingen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

FV Ravensburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.81 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen attack 1.41 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

FV Ravensburg attack 1.49 + Leinfelden-Echterdingen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leinfelden-Echterdingen scores more
36%
level
23%
FV Ravensburg scores more
41%

FV Ravensburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FV Ravensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leinfelden-Echterdingen vs FV Ravensburg

Leinfelden-Echterdingen beat FV Ravensburg 4-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Sportpark Goldäcker in Leinfelden-Echterdingen.