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Leinfelden-Echterdingen vs CFR Pforzheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
Leinfelden-Echterdingen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CFR Pforzheim
CFR Pforzheim
5/11/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 31Rasenplatz Sportpark Goldäcker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leinfelden-Echterdingen31%
×Draw23%
CFR Pforzheim47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
1.47
CFR Pforzheim
1.85

CFR Pforzheim creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

creates per match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
1.41
CFR Pforzheim
1.71

allows per match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen
2.00
CFR Pforzheim
1.53

finishing

Leinfelden-Echterdingen+0.00on par
CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leinfelden-Echterdingen ↓

CFR Pforzheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Leinfelden-Echterdingen or draw
53%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen or CFR Pforzheim
77%
Draw or CFR Pforzheim
69%

Winning margin

Leinfelden-Echterdingen wins by 2+
14%
CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 1+ goals
77%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen 2+ goals
43%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen 3+ goals
18%
CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals
84%
CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals
55%
CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Leinfelden-Echterdingen (draw refunded)
40%
CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leinfelden-Echterdingen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

CFR Pforzheim away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen attack 1.41 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

CFR Pforzheim attack 1.71 + Leinfelden-Echterdingen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Leinfelden-Echterdingen scores more
31%
level
23%
CFR Pforzheim scores more
47%

CFR Pforzheim at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Leinfelden-Echterdingen 0–1 CFR Pforzheim

CFR Pforzheim beat Leinfelden-Echterdingen 1-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Sportpark Goldäcker in Leinfelden-Echterdingen.