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Leiknir F. vs Vikingur Olafsiik — 1. Deild 2018

Leiknir F.
Leiknir F.
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Vikingur Olafsiik
Vikingur Olafsiik
9/26/20201. Deild1. Deild · Round 18Fjarðabyggðarhöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Leiknir F.31%
×Draw21%
Vikingur Olafsiik47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leiknir F.
1.65
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.05

Vikingur Olafsiik creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 43 away

creates per match

Leiknir F.
1.40
Vikingur Olafsiik
1.30

allows per match

Leiknir F.
2.80
Vikingur Olafsiik
1.91

finishing

Leiknir F.+0.00on par
Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir F. ↓

Vikingur Olafsiik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Leiknir F. or draw
53%
Leiknir F. or Vikingur Olafsiik
79%
Draw or Vikingur Olafsiik
69%

Winning margin

Leiknir F. wins by 2+
15%
Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Leiknir F. 1+ goals
81%
Leiknir F. 2+ goals
49%
Leiknir F. 3+ goals
23%
Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals
87%
Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals
61%
Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Leiknir F. (draw refunded)
40%
Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir F. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

Vikingur Olafsiik away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.91 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir F. attack 1.40 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 1.30 + Leiknir F. defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Leiknir F. scores more
31%
level
21%
Vikingur Olafsiik scores more
47%

Vikingur Olafsiik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vikingur Olafsiik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leiknir F. vs Vikingur Olafsiik

Vikingur Olafsiik beat Leiknir F. 4-2 in 1. Deild on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Fjarðabyggðarhöllin in Reyðarfjörður.