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Leiknir F. vs Thróttur Vogar — 2. Deild 2018

Leiknir F.
Leiknir F.
FT
1 – 0
Thróttur Vogar
Thróttur Vogar
6/2/20192. Deild2. Deild · Round 5Vogabæjarvöllur (Vogar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Leiknir F.50%
×Draw22%
Thróttur Vogar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leiknir F.
1.98
Thróttur Vogar
1.46

Leiknir F. creates 36% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 81 away

creates per match

Leiknir F.
2.30
Thróttur Vogar
1.83

allows per match

Leiknir F.
1.09
Thróttur Vogar
1.67

finishing

Leiknir F.+0.00on par
Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir F. ↓

Thróttur Vogar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Leiknir F. or draw
71%
Leiknir F. or Thróttur Vogar
78%
Draw or Thróttur Vogar
50%

Winning margin

Leiknir F. wins by 2+
28%
Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Leiknir F. 1+ goals
86%
Leiknir F. 2+ goals
59%
Leiknir F. 3+ goals
31%
Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals
77%
Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals
43%
Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Leiknir F. (draw refunded)
63%
Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir F. at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Thróttur Vogar away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir F. attack 2.30 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.83 + Leiknir F. defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leiknir F. scores more
50%
level
22%
Thróttur Vogar scores more
29%

Leiknir F. at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leiknir F. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Leiknir F. 1–0 Thróttur Vogar

Leiknir F. beat Thróttur Vogar 1-0 in 2. Deild on June 2, 2019.

The match was played at Vogabæjarvöllur (Vogar).