Leiknir F. 1–1 Keflavik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Leiknir F.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Keflavik

7/22/2020

1. Deild · Round 7Fjarðabyggðarhöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Leiknir F.23%

×Draw20%

Keflavik57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leiknir F.Expected goals in this matchKeflavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.31

Leiknir F.

1.43

Keflavik

2.31

Keflavik creates 62% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 46 away

1.40

creates per match

1.83

2.80

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Leiknir F.

1.40

Keflavik

1.83

allows per match

Leiknir F.

2.80

Keflavik

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leiknir F.+0.00on par

Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir F. ↓

Keflavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Leiknir F. or draw

43%

Leiknir F. or Keflavik

80%

Draw or Keflavik

77%

Winning margin

Leiknir F. wins by 2+

10%

Keflavik wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Leiknir F. 1+ goals

76%

Leiknir F. 2+ goals

42%

Leiknir F. 3+ goals

17%

Keflavik 1+ goals

90%

Keflavik 2+ goals

67%

Keflavik 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Leiknir F. (draw refunded)

29%

Keflavik (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir F. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

Keflavik away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir F. attack 1.40 + Keflavik defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.43

Keflavik attack 1.83 + Leiknir F. defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Leiknir F. scores more

23%

level

20%

Keflavik scores more

57%

Keflavik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff