Leiknir F. vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Leiknir F.

CANC

13:00

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

11/8/2020

1. Deild · Round 21Fjarðabyggðarhöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Leiknir F.20%

×Draw19%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leiknir F.Expected goals in this matchIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

2.42

Leiknir F.

1.32

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.42

IBV Vestmannaeyjar creates 83% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 32 away

1.40

creates per match

2.03

2.80

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Leiknir F.

1.40

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.03

allows per match

Leiknir F.

2.80

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leiknir F.+0.00on par

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir F. ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Leiknir F. or draw

39%

Leiknir F. or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

81%

Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

80%

Winning margin

Leiknir F. wins by 2+

8%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Leiknir F. 1+ goals

73%

Leiknir F. 2+ goals

38%

Leiknir F. 3+ goals

15%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

91%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

69%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Leiknir F. (draw refunded)

24%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir F. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir F. attack 1.40 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 2.03 + Leiknir F. defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Leiknir F. scores more

20%

level

19%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

61%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "IBV Vestmannaeyjar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff