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Leiknir F. vs Fram Reykjavik — 1. Deild 2018

Leiknir F.
Leiknir F.
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fram Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
8/22/20201. Deild1. Deild · Round 13Fjarðabyggðarhöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Leiknir F.23%
×Draw20%
Fram Reykjavik57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leiknir F.
1.33
Fram Reykjavik
2.19

Fram Reykjavik creates 65% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 43 away

creates per match

Leiknir F.
1.40
Fram Reykjavik
1.58

allows per match

Leiknir F.
2.80
Fram Reykjavik
1.26

finishing

Leiknir F.+0.00on par
Fram Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir F. ↓

Fram Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Leiknir F. or draw
43%
Leiknir F. or Fram Reykjavik
80%
Draw or Fram Reykjavik
77%

Winning margin

Leiknir F. wins by 2+
9%
Fram Reykjavik wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Leiknir F. 1+ goals
74%
Leiknir F. 2+ goals
38%
Leiknir F. 3+ goals
15%
Fram Reykjavik 1+ goals
89%
Fram Reykjavik 2+ goals
64%
Fram Reykjavik 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Leiknir F. (draw refunded)
29%
Fram Reykjavik (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir F. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

Fram Reykjavik away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.26 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir F. attack 1.40 + Fram Reykjavik defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fram Reykjavik attack 1.58 + Leiknir F. defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Leiknir F. scores more
23%
level
20%
Fram Reykjavik scores more
57%

Fram Reykjavik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fram Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leiknir F. vs Fram Reykjavik

Fram Reykjavik beat Leiknir F. 3-2 in 1. Deild on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Fjarðabyggðarhöllin in Reyðarfjörður.