Leighton Town 3–4 Stotfold: Result & Stats

Leighton Town

FT

3 – 4

Stotfold

11/2/2024

League #933 · Southern Central - 14Bell Close

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leighton Town49%

×Draw20%

Stotfold31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leighton TownExpected goals in this matchStotfold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.77

Leighton Town

2.27

Stotfold

1.77

Leighton Town creates 28% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

2.67

creates per match

1.86

1.67

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Leighton Town

2.67

Stotfold

1.86

allows per match

Leighton Town

1.67

Stotfold

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leighton Town+0.00on par

Stotfold+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leighton Town ↓

Stotfold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Leighton Town or draw

69%

Leighton Town or Stotfold

80%

Draw or Stotfold

51%

Winning margin

Leighton Town wins by 2+

29%

Stotfold wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leighton Town 1+ goals

90%

Leighton Town 2+ goals

66%

Leighton Town 3+ goals

39%

Stotfold 1+ goals

83%

Stotfold 2+ goals

53%

Stotfold 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Leighton Town (draw refunded)

62%

Stotfold (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leighton Town at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Stotfold away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leighton Town attack 2.67 + Stotfold defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.27

Stotfold attack 1.86 + Leighton Town defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Leighton Town scores more

49%

level

20%

Stotfold scores more

31%

Leighton Town at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Leighton Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff