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Leicester vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Leicester
Leicester
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
12/23/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Leicester57%
×Draw24%
Rotherham19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.73
Rotherham
0.89

Leicester creates 94% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 92 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.70
Rotherham
0.68

allows per match

Leicester
1.09
Rotherham
1.75

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
81%
Leicester or Rotherham
76%
Draw or Rotherham
43%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
32%
Rotherham wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
82%
Leicester 2+ goals
52%
Leicester 3+ goals
25%
Rotherham 1+ goals
59%
Rotherham 2+ goals
22%
Rotherham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
75%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.75 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.70 + Rotherham defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rotherham attack 0.68 + Leicester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Leicester scores more
57%
level
24%
Rotherham scores more
19%

Leicester at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leicester vs Rotherham

Leicester beat Rotherham 3-0 in Championship on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.