Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leicester vs Plymouth — Championship 2018

Leicester
Leicester
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plymouth
Plymouth
12/9/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Leicester59%
×Draw23%
Plymouth18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.77
Plymouth
0.86

Leicester creates 106% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 46 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.70
Plymouth
0.63

allows per match

Leicester
1.09
Plymouth
1.83

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
82%
Leicester or Plymouth
77%
Draw or Plymouth
41%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
33%
Plymouth wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
83%
Leicester 2+ goals
53%
Leicester 3+ goals
26%
Plymouth 1+ goals
58%
Plymouth 2+ goals
21%
Plymouth 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
77%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.70 + Plymouth defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Plymouth attack 0.63 + Leicester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Leicester scores more
59%
level
23%
Plymouth scores more
18%

Leicester at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Leicester 4–0 Plymouth

Leicester beat Plymouth 4-0 in Championship on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.