Leicester 2–0 Coventry: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Coventry

J. Beckford 60'

D. Nugent 11'

3/3/2012

Championship · Round 34King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Leicester38%

×Draw26%

Coventry35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.28

Leicester

1.34

Coventry

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 58 away

1.47

creates per match

1.44

1.13

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Leicester

1.47

Coventry

1.44

allows per match

Leicester

1.13

Coventry

1.22

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Leicester+0.24scores more

Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

65%

Leicester or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

62%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

Coventry wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

74%

Leicester 2+ goals

39%

Leicester 3+ goals

15%

Coventry 1+ goals

72%

Coventry 2+ goals

37%

Coventry 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

52%

Coventry (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.13 · 35 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.47 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Coventry attack 1.44 + Leicester defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leicester scores more

38%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

35%

Leicester at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Nugent↳ J. Beckford

60'

J. Beckford↳ D. Nugent

68'

C. Baker← D. Bell

71'

D. Drinkwater← B. Marshall

71'

S. Clingan← G. Deegan

74'

J. Schlupp← D. Nugent

79'

C. McDonald← G. McSheffrey

80'

S. Howard← J. Beckford

Leicester

Coventry

1

2

15

26

31

12

▼

Deegan

11

▼

McSheffre

7

▼

16

22

18

1

3

2

12

26

23

19

11

20

⚽A

▼

Beckford

35

⚽A

▼

Nugent

22

▼

Marshall

71'▲D. Drinkwater←▼B. Marshall

74'▲J. Schlupp←▼D. Nugent

80'▲S. Howard←▼J. Beckford

Leicester substitutes

16Drinkwater27Schlupp9Howard6Bamba30Kennedy

68'▲C. Baker←▼D. Bell

71'▲S. Clingan←▼G. Deegan

79'▲C. McDonald←▼G. McSheffrey

Coventry substitutes

8Baker4Clingan14McDonald13Dunn30Cameron