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Leicester vs Burnley — Premier League 2026

Leicester
Leicester
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Burnley
Burnley
Y. Tielemans 74'
J. Vardy 45'
C. Wood 26'
10/19/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Leicester52%
×Draw24%
Burnley24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.72
Burnley
1.09

Leicester creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.33
Burnley
0.79

allows per match

Leicester
1.39
Burnley
2.10

finishing

Leicester-0.19scores less
Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
76%
Leicester or Burnley
76%
Draw or Burnley
48%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
28%
Burnley wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
82%
Leicester 2+ goals
51%
Leicester 3+ goals
25%
Burnley 1+ goals
66%
Burnley 2+ goals
30%
Burnley 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
68%
Burnley (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.33 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.72

Burnley attack 0.79 + Leicester defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Leicester scores more
52%
level
24%
Burnley scores more
24%

Leicester at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
H. BarnesLeicesterLeicester · M
7.8

Match Events

2'
Jeff Hendrick
26'
C. Wood↳ D. McNeil
45'
J. Vardy↳ H. Barnes
62'
Chris Wood
65'
A. Lennon← R. Brady
67'
D. Gray← Ayoze Pérez
73'
D. Praet← J. Maddison
74'
Y. Tielemans↳ H. Barnes
79'
W. Morgan← H. Barnes
83'
M. Vydra← J. Rodriguez
90'
Matthew Lowton

Possession

64%Leicester

Shots

19Leicester

Pass accuracy

54%Leicester

Statistics

LeicesterBurnley
Overview
64%Possession36%
19Total Shots13
9Corners4
4Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots13
3On Target4
9Off Target3
7Blocked6
10Inside Box8
9Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
556Total Passes303
466Accurate Passes218
84%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
4Fouls10
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Premier League: Leicester 2–1 Burnley

Leicester beat Burnley 2-1 in Premier League on October 19, 2019.

Goals: C. Wood (26'), J. Vardy (45'), Y. Tielemans (74').

Leicester controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.