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Burnley vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Leicester
Leicester
J. Vardy 90'
J. Maddison 82'
3/1/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 157+ matches

Burnley36%
×Draw26%
Leicester39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.33
Leicester
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 157 home / 173 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.04
Leicester
1.46

allows per match

Burnley
1.32
Leicester
1.61

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
61%
Burnley or Leicester
74%
Draw or Leicester
64%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
16%
Leicester wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
74%
Burnley 2+ goals
38%
Burnley 3+ goals
15%
Leicester 1+ goals
75%
Leicester 2+ goals
40%
Leicester 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
48%
Leicester (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 157 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.61 · 173 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.04 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leicester attack 1.46 + Burnley defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Burnley scores more
36%
level
26%
Leicester scores more
39%

Leicester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. VardyLeicesterLeicester · F
8.0

Match Events

20'
Maxwel CornetGoal cancelled
40'
N. Collins← B. Mee
46'
A. Lookman← Ricardo Pereira
57'
Wout Weghorst
71'
J. Rodriguez← M. Cornet
72'
J. Maddison← Y. Tielemans
72'
J. Vardy← P. Daka
82'
J. Maddison↳ J. Vardy
88'
A. Barnes← A. Westwood
90+1'
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
90'
J. Vardy↳ H. Barnes

Possession

45%Burnley

Shots

9Burnley

Pass accuracy

47%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyLeicester
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots22
6Corners8
10Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots22
2On Target6
4Off Target6
3Blocked10
7Inside Box14
2Outside Box8
Passing
45%Possession55%
352Total Passes443
230Accurate Passes318
65%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides3

Premier League: Burnley 0–2 Leicester

Leicester beat Burnley 2-0 in Premier League on March 1, 2022.

Goals: J. Maddison (82'), J. Vardy (90').

Leicester controlled possession (55%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.